H1 2026 in review: demand is not weakening, but the map is redrawing
Don't expect the second half of 2026 to be a recovery. And let's not call it a downturn either. Neither fits. What's actually happening is divergence, and it's accelerating.
The traditional study destinations have stopped moving together.
Canada is stabilising by design, Australia stays under pressure, the UK holds its brand but faces a pivotal September, and the US carries both the greatest upside and the greatest uncertainty.
Meanwhile, Germany, Ireland, New Zealand and a fast-rising set of Asian study destinations keep taking a larger share. And Asia is no longer just a source region.
The market is becoming less concentrated, and that isn't reversing.
For H2, the number to watch is conversion. Demand hasn't weakened, but interest, applications, visas and arrivals now point in different directions. And there's a lot that can intervene between a student's first enquiry and their arrival on campus.
Just as telling: where students go when they don't convert to their first choice. That's what will reveal the real shape of what comes next.
The appetite for international education is still there. What's changed is the assumption that it follows the same routes it always has.
👉 Click the link below for the full H1 review and H2 outlook.

Total cost of study: Why Europe's affordability advantage varies more than you think
Continental Europe's tuition advantage over the Big Four is real, but it's not one market.
Lower tuition doesn't always mean lower total cost: student housing now drives 60–75% of monthly spend and can reverse the ranking, while France's 2026/27 fee reform moves it toward the premium end.
Our latest analysis breaks down what the total-cost picture means for study destination positioning and source-market targeting.
Click here for the full blog >>

Australia’s 2027 cap stays flat, but visa trends point to a changing recruitment landscape.

Q2 2026 visa data shows declines across the Big 4, while New Zealand continues to grow.
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