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BONARD Market Outlook Tracker

About the Tracker

BONARD Market Outlook Tracker

With changes in student visa policy reshaping student flows to major English-speaking destinations, BONARD has rolled out a monthly update to assist education providers with navigating in this evolving environment. 

This essential and timely intelligence highlights imminent opportunities and helps with tactical allocation of marketing and recruitment activity toward the most suitable markets for each destination.

The tracker provides a real-time access to visa data, including:

  • Unique cross-destination benchmarks

  • Trends in student visa issuance 

  • Visa approval rate by source market

  • Identification of fastest-growing markets

Note: Please note that students may study on other than student visa. For more information about what the data represents, please refer to the methodology statement (bottom).

Get a real-time access to visa data

BONARD Market Outlook Tracker

Destination Benchmark: Student Visa Issued (all study levels)

Source: Australian Government, 2023; Immigration New Zealand, 2024; IRCC, 2024; UK Home Office, 2024; U.S. State Department, 2024

Destinations that experienced a strong rebound are now witnessing a period of normalisation.

Canada’s V-shaped recovery saw the number of study permits issued on all study levels increase by 70% compared to pre-pandemic levels. The spike has resulted in the Canadian government imposing a cap on the number of study permits issued (excluding K-12 and post-graduate research students). 

Australia, too, saw a V-shaped recovery (40% rise in student visa issuance compared to 2019). However, the current visa approval rates mean that institutions effectively stopped recruiting students from certain markets, which poses opportunities for other destinations, as evidenced in the drop in Q1 2024.

New Zealand is experiences a U-shaped recovery, and is yet to reach the pre-pandemic levels. 

The restriction to bring dependants to the UK (postgraduate students are exempt) is also taking its toll on student recruitment. The number of Indian and Nigerian students are poised to decline dramatically and visa grant rate also dropped considerably as of Q4 2024 (Nigeria, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Ghana). 

The USA enjoys gradual expansion that continued throughout Q1 2024. At the same time, the growth is predominantly concentrated within international graduate students. 

BONARD Market Outlook Tracker

Australia: Student Visa Approval Rates (selected markets)

Source: Australian Government, 2023; Immigration New Zealand, 2024; IRCC, 2024; UK Home Office, 2024; U.S. State Department, 2024

Notable slowdown in Independent ELICOS visa issuance, after the sector quickly recovered. Notable slowdown in Independent ELICOS visa issuance, after the sector quickly recovered.

Notable slowdown in Independent ELICOS visa issuance, after the sector quickly recovered. Notable slowdown in Independent ELICOS visa issuance, after the sector quickly recovered.

Get a real-time access to visa data

BONARD Market Outlook Tracker

Market Spotlight: Brazil

Source: Australian Government, 2023; Immigration New Zealand, 2024; IRCC, 2024; UK Home Office, 2024; U.S. State Department, 2024

Brazil has been experiencing a slower recovery compared to other LATAM markets. Notable slowdown in both Australia and the USA, while Canada and the UK remain stable. 

ELICOS, the most popular sector for Brazilian students in Australia, Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023 visas are down by 39% – opportunity for other destinations. USA – losing market share in Brazil.

Brazil also enjoys a high visa approval rate, so providers need to make more effort to recruit students from Brazil.

Interested in the most recent in-field insight on student recruitment from Brazil? View our latest webinar with input from renowned market insiders >> Click here to access the webinar

BONARD Market Outlook Tracker

Fastest-growing Markets

Australia (Higher Education)

China, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Cambodia, UK

Canada

India, Nigeria, China, Philippines, Algeria

New Zealand

India, Nepal, Philippines, Germany, Thailand

USA

Myanmar, Vietnam, Nepal, Pakistan, Colombia

CONTACT FORM

Interested in the full dataset or a bespoke country report?

By filling this form you request a real-time access to visa data, including:

  • Analysis by sector/study level;

  • Detailed source country analysis;

  • Detailed student visa grant rate, including trends;

  • Identification of fastest-growing markets;

  • Specific source market benchmarks.

We look forward to assisting you further.

BONARD Market Outlook Tracker

Data Coverage

The statistics refer to the following student visa categories (unless stated otherwise):  


Australia | Student visa (main applicant only, outside Australia, all study levels)
Canada | Study permits in month they became effective (all study levels) 
New Zealand | Student visa (main applicants only, all study levels) 
UK | Student visa (main applicants only, all study levels)
USA | F-1 visa (main applicants only, all study levels) 

DISCLAIMER
Due care should be taken when interpreting this data. While BONARD took the necessary means to ensure the compatibility of the statistics, please refer to the guidance on what the data represents. Not all students require visas or utilise the student visa route to enrol in certain study programs. For example, language students can also study on visitor visas or working holiday visas. These students are not included in these statistics. For questions, please contact education@bonard.com.