New data from BONARD Education has shown ELT student weeks fell by 23% last year, while student numbers dropped 10%, building on less drastic declines of 12% and 7% respectively in 2024.

The report highlights the emergence of a “new market structure”, drawing on data from the eight major ELT study destinations – Australia, Canada, Ireland, Malta, New Zealand, South Africa, the UK and the US.

Bonard international education director Ivana Bartosik warned that “2026 would likely bring a third year of overall decline” and that opportunity lay in “matching source market, student segment and program type to where demand is actually holding”.

“We have shorter stays, more juniors, less adults… brace yourself for 2026, look for those opportunities, hold on, and adapt,” she advised.

Strikingly, Australia recorded the steepest fall, with student weeks down 35%, reflecting affordability pressures and government policies including increased study visa fees and record-high visa refusals hitting the ELICOS sector particularly hard.

At the PIE Live Asia Pacific conference in July, English Australia CEO Ian Aird said the sector had lost 20 years’ worth of investment – “Twenty years of effort to become a world-leading destination for English language study”.

Following the report’s launch, Aird said colleagues were “working very hard to do the job of two or three people at the moment… they’ve just got to do so much more with less”.

He highlighted the “tyranny” of Australia’s visa regime, with the country’s visa application fee now 10 times that of Canada or Ireland.

Across the eight destinations, nearly 902,000 students generated 5,820,300 weeks in 2025, with the average length of stay falling from 8.3 weeks in 2022 to 6.5 weeks in 2025 – marking the lowest point in a decade.

The marked drop in the average length of stay can primarily be attributed to lower levels of adult students, who typically enrol in longer programs, as the market shifts towards shorter junior courses.

English Australia is not steering the ship. We’re at the back of the ship with a bucket, trying to bail out the water and keep it afloat a little bit longer

- Ian Aird, English Australia

Growing affordability pressures alongside intensified competition from in-country provision and alternative study destinations such as the Philippines, Malaysia and the UAE were also cited as contributing factors.

Of the leading study destinations, the UK remained the largest in terms of student numbers as shorter-duration and junior mobility helped sustain volume, though levels dropped by 8% on 2024. Ireland, the US, Australia and Canada followed the UK as top hosting countries, though every destination saw a decline in 2025.

English UK chief executive Jodie Gray reflected the mood across traditional destinations shifting from volume to value. “We can’t compete on price in the UK with new destinations, and we shouldn’t. It has to be about demonstrating value,” she said.

New Zealand and South Africa – the seventh and eighth largest ELT destinations respectively – were the only countries to move against the trend. The former grew both student numbers and student weeks by 11%, while South Africa saw modest rises in both.

And while providers were advised to adapt and match their services to areas of growing opportunity, Languages Canada executive director Gonzalo Peralta said colleagues should take heed of new challenges this might bring, such as safeguarding risks associated with the less regulated juniors market.

Elsewhere on the demand side, 24 out of the top 30 source markets recorded a fall in student weeks, illustrating the widespread nature of declines.

Despite an 18% drop, Brazil remained the largest source market in 2025, while China saw a 22% decline, reversing the growth recorded in 2024.

_{by Polly Nash}