The global student landscape is changing fast. As the US, UK, Canada, and Australia—commonly referred to as the "Big Four"—tighten policies, over 450,000 international students are shifting toward alternative study destinations. Here’s what’s happening—and why it matters to your international student recruitment strategy.
If you are short on time:
450,000 students are leaving the Big Four post-2024;
Europe and Asia-Pacific are primarily attracting shifting students;
The shift is driven by policy tightening, affordability, and work rights;
BONARD Education helps institutions respond with data, strategy, and targeted recruitment trips.
Global student mobility continues to grow despite disruptions
As of 2022, 6.9 million tertiary-level students were pursuing higher education outside their country of origin. This number has been rising at a steady annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% for the past two decades. None of the major disruptors—be it the global financial crisis or the Covid-19 pandemic—have managed to halt this trend.
What drives this sustained expansion is a widening gap between economic development and the capacity of domestic education systems in many source markets. As economies grow and middle and upper-middle classes expand, local education provision often struggles to keep up—driving families to seek higher-quality education abroad.
Studying abroad is no longer a privilege reserved for the wealthy; it has become a necessity. A local degree, delivered in the native language and contextualised to the home country, no longer guarantees success in the global job market.
Today’s students are prioritising study destinations that offer a combination of quality education, affordability, safety, and work rights during and after graduation.
Today’s students are increasingly prioritising study destinations that offer a combination of quality education, affordability, safety, and work rights during and after graduation. The Big Four have traditionally delivered on these criteria—until now.
The Big Four are losing ground
For decades, the Big Four drew about one-third of all internationally mobile students—roughly 2.5 million out of 7.5 million. As of 2024, however, all four study destinations are tightening immigration and education policies, effectively capping international student numbers.
Already in 2024, 285,000 students have chosen alternative destinations. In 2025, it is estimated that at least 165,000 students will change their preferred destination away from the Big Four.
Taking into account various policy shifts and data trends (see sources below), it is reasonable to assume that the Big Four are now losing market share at a rate of at least 100,000 students annually. These aren’t small shifts—they represent a significant market reallocation.
One key lesson from the history of student mobility is that change happens fast. Prospective students are typically 18 years old only once, and the stakes—both financial and professional—are high. As such, both students and their families react quickly to policy changes that affect their opportunities.
It is reasonable to assume that the "Big Four" are now losing market share at a rate of at least 100,000 students annually.
US
During President Trump’s first term, a combination of restrictive immigration policies and an increasingly unwelcoming climate coincided with the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. The result was a deviation from the United States’ previous growth trajectory of 7–8% annually. Between 2017 and 2019, the U.S. experienced an average annual decline of 1% in international student numbers, resulting in a cumulative loss of approximately 96,000 students.
Australia, Canada
Australia and Canada emerged as the key beneficiaries of this redistribution. From 2016 to 2019, Australia’s international tertiary mobile students rose by nearly 50% to over 509,000, while Canada saw a similar growth, reaching 323,000 students by 2019.
However, this momentum shifted again with Australia’s border closures during the pandemic. Between 2019 and 2021, Australia’s international student intake dropped sharply—from 509,000 to 378,400, a loss of over 130,000 students. During the same period, Canada responded with flexible immigration measures, including allowing students enrolled in online programmes during lockdowns to remain eligible for the Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP). This policy shift paid off: Canada’s numbers remained relatively resilient, declining only slightly in 2021 before rebounding to 336,800 by 2022.
The data tells a clear story. In the year following Australia’s lockdown, nearly 40,000 students redirected their study plans—many opting for Canada, which offered both continuity and career pathways despite the global disruption.
Who are the winners?
Students’ preferences remain consistent and well-documented:
Safety and predictability
A welcoming environment
English-taught programs
Quality and reputation of education
Post-graduation employability
Work rights during and after studies
Tuition affordability
Reasonable accommodation options
The Big Four once ticked most of these boxes. Now, as these benefits diminish, students will seek them elsewhere—wherever comparable opportunities exist.
The Big Four once ticked most of these boxes. Now, as these benefits diminish, students will seek them elsewhere.
Asia-Pacific
Cities like Singapore, Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Malaysia are emerging as alternatives, but their capacity may not be sufficient to absorb the full magnitude of redirected demand.
Europe
Source markets like Germany, France, Spain, and Italy appear well-positioned to fill this gap. These countries now offer many of the same advantages that once made Canada or Australia attractive, including relative affordability, safety, and strong academic offerings—along with greater policy openness and housing potential.
What does this mean for stakeholders?
Educational institutions in emerging destinations should capitalise on this moment. Clear, compelling communication of value proposition—especially in affordability, work rights, and safety—is critical. Meanwhile, institutions in the Big Four must reassess their positioning and engage with students more intentionally than ever before.
The impact of this shift extends well beyond the classroom, affecting real estate and student housing investors, governments, and education providers.
Turn student mobility shifts into your strategic advantage
Global student flows are changing fast—but that does not have to disrupt your international student recruitment success.
Since 2007, BONARD Education has supported educational institutions worldwide by tracking international student demand, student visa trends, and market movements.
We know:
Where international students are going
What drives their decisions
How to adapt your student recruitment strategy so that shifting policies do not derail your goals
Whether you are exploring new source markets or adjusting existing ones, our team is here to guide you with actionable, research-backed insights.
Have a question or a challenge in mind?
Fill out the form, and our consultants will get back to you with tailored recommendations
Useful sources and references:
Global international student numbers triple over two decades
In the past twenty years, the number of higher education students studying abroad has surged, growing from 2.1 million in 2000 to almost 6.9 million by 2022.
Beyond the Big Four: How demand for study abroad is shifting to destinations in Asia and Europe
Recent research from INTO University Partnerships reveals that prospective students are now applying to more programmes than in the past - usually four or five - and are considering a wider range of institutions and countries. This pattern is expected to persist in the years ahead.
Top study destinations outside the “big four” in 2024
While the US, UK, Canada, and Australia still host over half of all international students, other destinations are growing. Germany expects over 400,000 international students in 2024/25, and France, with 430,000+ in 2023/24, is expanding its “Study in Europe” initiatives.
Source: https://thepienews.com/top-study-destinations-outside-the-big-four-in-2024/
South Asia: student mobility trends and 2025 expectations
South Asia's student mobility is growing and will account for 15% of global international students by 2030. Visa restrictions in Canada and Australia are pushing students to consider Europe and Asia-Pacific instead.
Source: https://thepienews.com/south-asia-student-mobility-trends-and-2025-expectations/
Three of ‘Big Four’ see steep drop in postgrad enrolment
Postgraduate enrolments are falling in the US, Canada, and Australia, while the UK is seeing some growth. The Big Four's share of international students has dropped to 28% by early 2025. More students are choosing countries like France, Austria, Ireland, Spain, China, Japan, and Malaysia instead.
Source: https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20250505205911862
US vows to use ‘every tool’ in crackdown on international students
The US is cracking down on international student visas, creating uncertainty for students. Many students are now looking at other countries like Canada, the UK, Australia, and destinations in Asia. This shift could weaken the US's position as a top study destination.
Source: https://www.ft.com/content/fb8a97db-991e-4d47-93f5-a663884f12a9?utm
For Some International Students, U.S. Dreams Dim Under Trump
Once drawn to American universities as havens, some students from abroad are finding the United States is not the bedrock of free speech they had expected.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/16/world/europe/us-international-students-college-trump.html
UK universities face growing struggle to recruit international students
Applications for sponsored visas have plummeted since new restrictions brought in, raising financial fears
More Southeast Asian students are choosing to pursue international education within their own region
Students from Southeast Asia are increasingly choosing to study in nearby countries like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan instead of traditional Western destinations. This shift is driven by affordability, proximity, and attractive post-study work options within the region. Additionally, transnational education is growing, with many students opting for international programmes delivered locally.
Source: https://insights.acumen.education/key-trends-in-south-east-asia-2024/
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