Q4 2025 Student Mobility Flows Briefing

Q4 2025 GLOBAL STUDENT FLOWS BRIEFING

About the webinar

Who is most likely to enrol in the Big 4 and New Zealand? Where are these students coming from, and what does this mean for higher education globally?

In this edition of our regular Global Student Flows Briefing, we will focus on the most recent student visa and enrolment data for Australia, Canada, the UK, the US, and New Zealand.

This session will equip educators in these destinations to identify source markets with the highest likelihood of conversion to enrolment, and therefore plan for their 2026 international student recruitment activities.

"This briefing offers education providers relevant international benchmarks and an opportunity to align their student recruitment and marketing efforts with the latest trends."

Ivana Bartosik, International Education Director

In 2025, more than 450,000 international students are expected to choose study destinations outside the 'Big 4', with Europe emerging as their preferred choice.

In the latest edition of our Global Student Flows Briefing, we analysed Q2 2025 visa data across Big 4 + New Zealand and higher education enrolment trends across 21 destinations.

One finding is clear: global student mobility is shifting, and Europe is emerging as the next major hub. Educational institutions across the globe must diversify their international student recruitment and use accurate data to stay ahead.

"This briefing offers education providers relevant international benchmarks and an opportunity to align their student recruitment and marketing efforts with the latest trends."

Ivana Bartosik, International Education Director

Q4 2025 GLOBAL STUDENT FLOWS BRIEFING

Topics covered

Current student demand and visa approval rates

in the 'Big 4' and New Zealand

Top source markets

based on historical enrolment data and student visa trends

Impact of policy changes

on source markets and what it means for your student recruitment efforts

Q4 2025 GLOBAL STUDENT FLOWS BRIEFING

Speakers

Patrik Pavlacic

Chief Intelligence Officer

Sarah Verkinova

Head of International Education

Q2 2025 GLOBAL STUDENT FLOWS BRIEFING

Key takeaways:

Global shift is accelerating

Protectionist policies in traditional English-speaking destinations are reshaping student mobility. By 2024/25, combined enrolments in Europe and Asia are expected to surpass those in the Big Four (Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US).

The Big Four + New Zealand projected to decline -17% in 2025

This is primarily driven by sharp declines in the US and Canada.

New Zealand is rebounding

The country is poised for growth, supported by new international education strategies and streamlined visa pathways.

The US continues its downward trend

Driven by visa policy limitations, the US is projected to experience a 60% decline in F-1 student visa issuance during Q2 2025.

UK remains resilient

The UK stands out as a bright spot, having recorded two consecutive quarters of growth (+27% and +24%). This momentum is being fuelled by rising demand from India, Nepal, and Nigeria, as students shift away from other destinations.

Europe on the rise

Europe hosted 1.6 million+ international students in 2023/24, with a 5% growth forecast for 2024/25. Demand is being led by South Asia and Southeast Asia.

Diversification is no longer optional

The global student mobility landscape is shifting. From 2024/25 onwards, international student recruitment will become more fragmented.

To remain competitive, institutions must:

Build stronger student recruitment pipelines
Diversify beyond China and India
Target emerging source markets in SEA, Latin America, and Africa

Presentation request

Q2 2025 GLOBAL STUDENT FLOWS BRIEFING

Key takeaways:

Destination highlights

Australia:

Visa grants stabilised in Q2 2025 (HE segment leading)
Main growth from Nepal, India, Bangladesh
Grant rate dropped to 82%, creating uncertainty in some source markets

US:

Q2 2025 F-1 visa grants estimated down 60%
Reopened consulates gave short-lived optimism; May saw -22% YoY drop
Policy volatility expected to continue into 2026

UK:

2 consecutive quarters of growth
Leading growth from India, Nepal, Nigeria
Grant rate holds at 88%

Canada:

Grant rates below 60%
India and Nigeria down, even with modest rebound in Q1 2025

New Zealand:

Stable visa grant performance (only -3% YoY Jan–June)
High approval rates from China and Philippines (90%+)
Broadening base with growth from Sri Lanka, Bangladesh

Europe:

+320,000 students since 2019
1.6M hosted in 2023/24; 5% growth forecast
Destinations seeing highest growth: Italy (+40%), Netherlands (+39%), Poland (+30%), Austria, Portugal, Switzerland
EU increasingly attracting students from South Asia, SEA, and Africa

Source market highlights

India

Outbound mobility surging: 670,000 students in 2023/24
Growth in UK & NZ; decline in Canada and US
Indian students are responsive to policy & affordability shifts

Nepal

Standout performer in 2025
High growth across Australia, UK, NZ
114,000+ outbound students in 2023/24

Bangladesh

Reliable growth across destinations, especially strong in NZ, UK, and emerging in Europe

Pakistan

Increasing across most destinations
Particularly strong growth in Germany and Italy

Vietnam

Decline in Australia and some EU countries (e.g., Italy)
Growth in Netherlands, Finland, Poland

Nigeria

Still strong in UK, France and Poland gaining ground
Visa access remains key challenge

China

Gradual long-term decline
~870,000 outbound in 2023/24 (down from 1M in 2019/20)
More likely to stay within Asia (e.g., Malaysia, HK, Singapore)

Emerging Markets

Indonesia, South Korea, Philippines, Sri Lanka growing
Türkiye, Ghana, and Ethiopia gaining visibility in EU

Q4 2025 GLOBAL STUDENT FLOWS BRIEFING

Webinar Recording

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Webinar schedule:

Presentation by BONARD (30 mins) Q&A session (15 mins)

Do you want to learn more about the presented data? Explore our data platform - the most advanced source for international education market intelligence.

Access previous Global Student Flows Briefings

Q4 2024

^{November 2024}

Q1 2025

^{March 2025}

Q2 2025

^{June 2025}

Q3 2025

^{October 2025}

Q4 2025

^{December 2025}

CONTACT FORM

Recording and presentation - request form

Access the latest international student mobility trends by submitting this form

Do you want to learn more about the presented data? Explore our data platform - the most advanced source for international education market intelligence.

Q4 2025 Global Student Flows Briefing

About the webinar

Topics covered