International student mobility is entering another phase of reorganisation.
Recent announcements from the United States regarding visa processing pauses for 75 nationalities, layered on top of earlier restrictions introduced in 2025 and early 2026, are already influencing student decision-making.
While U.S. embassies continue to accept student visa applications and conduct interviews, the issuance of student visas varies by nationality.
For some key source markets, including Nepal, Bangladesh, and Brazil, restrictions primarily affect student visa extensions and post-study pathways, while initial visa issuance continues.
Other source markets, including Nigeria, Iran, Zimbabwe, and Myanmar, face broader constraints impacting both new and continuing students.
The result is not a sudden collapse in global demand for international education, but a redistribution of student flows. Geographically and structurally.
This shift has direct implications for US universities, pathway providers, and policymakers planning for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 cycles.
What the data indicates: a structural reset, not a temporary shock
Based on BONARD Education's analysis of U.S. State Department data and market intelligence, the expected decline in F-1 visa grants in 2026 is likely to fall between -11% (baseline) and -25% (negative scenario) year-on-year.
This is driven by three overlapping dynamics:
Student visa processing uncertainty across 95 nationalities
Constraints on post-study pathways, including OPT-related limitations
Cumulative negative signalling toward international students in North America
Importantly, these changes do not reduce global student intent. Instead, they increase risk sensitivity, pushing international students toward study destinations offering clearer student visa rules, policy stability, and predictable post-study options.
North America, as a region, is becoming a higher-friction choice.
Where will displaced student demand go?
The UK: stable volumes, redistributed demand
The United Kingdom is expected to stabilise at 2025/26 enrolment levels rather than absorb all displaced demand from the U.S.
What changes is how that demand is absorbed.
We expect excess interest to be redistributed into:
Transnational education (TNE) campuses
Hybrid delivery formats
UK-linked study programmes delivered in China and India
For UK institutions, this reinforces the strategic importance of offshore delivery, articulation pathways, and franchise models, rather than reliance on onshore intake growth alone.
Europe: steady growth with differentiated winners
Mainland Europe is positioned as one of the primary beneficiaries of this re-routing.
BONARD Education forecasts 3–5% annual international student enrolment growth across Europe in both 2025/26 and 2026/27, led by:
Germany
France
Italy
In parallel, smaller European study destinations such as Ireland and Finland are expected to grow at a faster relative pace, benefiting from:
Strong policy signalling
High perceived safety
Clear post-study frameworks
Competitive English-taught programme portfolios
This is not uniform growth. Institutions with weak visibility in emerging source markets or limited agent networks will not automatically benefit.
Asia and regional hubs: gaining strategic relevance
Beyond Europe, we are closely monitoring rising demand toward well-established Asian study destinations, including:
Japan
South Korea
Turkey
In the medium to longer term, regional education hubs such as Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates are also strengthening their position, particularly for students seeking:
Faster student visa outcomes
Shorter pathways to employment
Lower total cost of study
These study destinations increasingly compete not just on price, but on system efficiency.
What this means for student recruitment and marketing teams
This environment rewards education institutions that act before flows fully materialise, not after.
Three strategic implications stand out:
First, diversification must move from theory to execution
Many institutions talk about diversification. Fewer operationalise it. That means reallocating budgets, expanding agent coverage, and localising messaging for markets likely to redirect away from North America.
Second, TNE and alternative delivery formats are no longer optional
They are becoming a core risk-mitigation strategy, particularly for UK and Australian providers navigating capped or volatile visa regimes.
Third, timing matters
Students affected by visa uncertainty make decisions earlier, rely more heavily on trusted intermediaries, and compare destinations more aggressively. Institutions that surface early in that consideration set will disproportionately benefit.
Acting on uncertainty: from monitoring to case-based strategy
There is no single “replacement” market for the U.S.
International student flows will fragment across multiple study destinations, formats, and price points.
That is why BONARD Education recommends case-based assessments rather than generic assumptions:
Which nationalities are most likely to re-route into your portfolio?
Which competitors are positioned to capture them?
Which delivery formats reduce student visa dependency for your institution?
Our team continues to monitor these developments closely and shares ongoing insights through Global Student Flow webinars, market briefings, and targeted advisory support.
In 2026, international student recruitment success will belong to institutions that read the signals early, and act while others wait for certainty that never fully arrives.
BONARD Education monitors global student mobility, visa policy shifts, and enrolment trends across major and emerging study destinations. Our insights support institutions in turning uncertainty into strategic advantage.
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Turn student mobility shifts into your strategic advantage
Whether you are exploring new source markets or adjusting existing ones, our team is here to guide you with actionable, research-backed insights
Since 2007, BONARD Education has supported educational institutions worldwide by tracking international student demand, student visa trends, and market movements.
We know:
Where international students are going
What drives their decisions
How to adapt your student recruitment strategy so that shifting policies do not derail your goals
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