Key Takeaways from BONARD's Q1 2026 Global Student Flows Briefing

UK: the anchor among the Big Four

• Only Big Four destination to grow in 2025

• Applications +7% YoY

• Visa grants projected at ~422,000 (+6%)

• Strong growth at Master’s level (+30%), driven by India, Nigeria, Nepal, Bangladesh

• Bachelor’s also up (+12%) with more diversified demand

• Risk: tighter refusal-rate thresholds (≤5%) limit access from Pakistan & Bangladesh despite demand

Outlook: Broad stability through 2026–27 (~365k new entrants/year)

Australia: stabilising, but structurally smaller

• Demand decline slowed in late 2025 (possible “floor”), but recovery is weak

• Visa grants projected ~198,000 in 2025 (-12% YoY)

• Higher education still dominant (74% of grants), but under pressure

• English language sector hit hard (-35%)

• Declines driven mainly by China

• Growth from Nepal & Bangladesh, but not enough to offset losses

Outlook: Further contraction likely (-7–10%), settling into a smaller, more selective market

Canada: sharp contraction, slow rebuild

• Most severely impacted study destination

• Applications down ~51% YoY

• Study permits down ~60% YoY

• College sector collapse (-83%)

• Approval rates fell below 60%

• India accounted for ~half of total decline

• Mixed policy signals: tighter caps vs talent-attraction initiatives

Outlook: Gradual recovery only

~50k grants in 2026 → ~56k in 2027 (still far below pre-2024 levels)

New Zealand: managed stability

• Policy deliberately supportive

• Clear growth ambition: 83k students (2024) → 105k by 2027

• Expanded student work rights (20 → 25 hrs/week)

• New short post-study work option (6 months)

• Student visa grants projected ~80,600 in 2025 (-2% YoY)

• High visa approval rates overall (e.g. Philippines ~94%)

• Nepal growing fast but with lower approval certainty (~77%)

Outlook: Gradual, controlled growth—not a rebound spike

United States: access shock, not demand collapse

• 2025 defined by processing disruption, not lack of interest

• Student visa interview pause (June–July) hit peak intake window

• Student visa grants estimated -33% YoY (~261k)

• Fall 2025 intake likely >50% down

• Declines strongest from India, China, South Korea

• Growth from Brazil, Nepal, Vietnam, Bangladesh, but too small to compensate

Outlook: 2026 = inflection point

Baseline ~233k visas; downside risk if India tightens further