In 2025, global student mobility is undergoing one of its most significant shifts in recent years, with over 450,000 students turning away from the traditional ‘Big 4’ study destinations (Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US).
At the centre of this transformation is Europe, which is fast becoming a preferred study destination due to its affordability, policy openness, and high academic standards.
At the Q3 2025 edition of BONARD Education’s Global Student Flows Briefing, our research team revealed the latest student visa data in the 'Big 4' + New Zealand, and enrolment trends, and source market dynamics across 21 study destinations, powered by the BONARD Education Platform.
Here are six key takeaways to inform your international student recruitment strategy:
1. The ‘Big 4’ are flatlining
Rising living costs, student visa restrictions, and inconsistent policy signals are slowing down the Big 4. In fact, a 17% drop in international student applications is projected for Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US (plus New Zealand) by 2026. The US and Canada are expected to face the largest losses.
2. Europe is on the rise
Europe is no longer a secondary option, it’s becoming a strategic choice. From 2019 to 2024, the region welcomed 320,000 additional international students, and 2025 projections point to 5% year-on-year increase (to reach over 1.6 million students).
Countries like Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Poland, are attracting students through:
3. Source market spotlight: India and Nepal lead the growth
India has surpassed 670,000 outbound students, and Nepal has emerged as one of the fastest-growing markets for destinations such as the UK, Australia, and New Zealand, and it is also showing growth in interest toward European and Asian destinations.
Other trends:
4. Student visa grant rates are shaping enrolments
Student visa grant rates is now a crucial determinant of international student enrolments. Latest student visa data shows:
UK remains the most consistent, with an 88% student visa approval rates
Canada continued decline, staying below 60% study permit grant rates
New Zealand is showing stable, healthy performance
Australia faces volatility, particularly in South Asia
US marks F-1 visa issuance down approximately 60%
Tracking these trends is essential to adjust your student recruitment strategy in real time.
5. This shift is systemic, not temporary
The redistribution of global student flows is accelerating.
Europe is not only gaining scale, but also diversifying its intake, with students from South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa increasingly choosing Europe over the Big 4.
6. Diversification is essential
A data-led diversification strategy is now critical for any institution looking to build sustainable international student pipelines.
There is growing potential for education institutions to diversify their student recruitment beyond China and India, attracting students from:
The BONARD Education Platform helps institutions benchmark student visa performance, map enrolment data, evaluate market potential, and make informed international student recruitment decisions.
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