Why Vietnamese students are shifting study destinations – and what Europe must do
In international student recruitment, most institutions focus solely on their own destination. But in 2025, staying competitive means understanding the broader trends in higher education. Shifting student visa application volumes, destination preferences, and policy dynamics reveal critical early signals
In international student recruitment, most institutions focus solely on their own destination. But in 2025, staying competitive means understanding the broader trends in higher education. Shifting student visa application volumes, destination preferences, and policy dynamics reveal critical early signals. Tracking these shifts, before they show up in enrolment reports, gives institutions a strategic edge.
Vietnam has long been a reliable and high-potential market for international education. For years, Australia led with strong transnational education (TNE) partnerships, while the US retained its traditional pull. But recent shifts in student mobility patterns are reshaping the landscape, and European institutions are now presented with a unique opportunity to step in.
If you are short on time:
Vietnamese students are moving fast: Major shifts in destination preferences are underway, and traditional study destinations are already seeing visa application declines.
The ‘Big Four’ is losing ground: Australia (-37%), UK (-13%), and New Zealand (-6%) have all seen recent drops in Vietnamese student visa issuances. The US saw early 2024 growth, but that’s already reversing.
Asia is capitalising on the gap: Enrolments in South Korea have more than doubled, while Japan saw a major decline. Flexibility, affordability, and strong career outcomes are driving decisions.
Europe is emerging as a strong contender, especially Germany, France, and the Netherlands. With over 13,000 Vietnamese students already choosing Europe, demand is rising.
Visa and mobility trends matter: Institutions that track student visa application data gain an early advantage, enabling proactive strategy adjustments before trends go mainstream.
To recruit students from Vietnam in 2026, institutions must align programmes with labour market needs, offer flexible pathways, and clearly communicate post-study work options.
The destinations that win are those that anticipate, not react. If you’re not actively tracking outbound trends and visa data, you may already be behind.
The rise of TNE and mobility in Vietnam
The number of Vietnamese students enrolled in in-country Australian TNE programmes grew from 7,368 in 2019 to 16,884 in 2023, a clear sign that flexible, globally recognised education is gaining appeal. However, despite this growth, the demand for full overseas experiences remains strong, especially among Vietnam’s rapidly expanding middle class, which is increasingly able to invest in international education.
Why the ‘Big Four’ are slipping
Recent visa data from 2024 and early (Q1) 2025 reveal clear signs of cooling demand for traditional study destinations:
Australia: -37%
United Kingdom: -13%
New Zealand: -6%
United States: The only major destination to show growth through 2024, but that’s changing.
While Vietnam appeared to be a growth market for the US in early 2024 (up 57% YoY in January), signs of a slowdown emerged rapidly. By March and April, F1 visa issuances dropped by 13%, and May saw a 17% decline compared to 2024.
What recent student visa data is telling us
The change in US administration, evolving visa restrictions, and geopolitical uncertainty are prompting Vietnamese students to reconsider their plans. Had institutions been actively tracking destination trends and visa data, they would have seen these early signals and been ready to adapt.
This is the critical insight: tracking secondary markets is not optional - it’s strategic. Markets like Vietnam may shift faster than major trend reports can reflect. Institutions that move early can attract students who are actively looking for alternatives.
Tracking other destinations is no longer optional - it’s a strategic necessity
Asia’s gain is a signal
Vietnamese enrolment in South Korea more than doubled, rising from 7,817 in 2019/20 to 16,755 in 2024/25.
Conversely, Japan experienced a dramatic drop of over 37,000 students during the same period.
This tells us students are flexible and responsive. When a destination offers the right blend of quality, affordability, safety, and post-study opportunities, they move quickly. Europe should take note.
Europe: a quiet contender gaining traction
While not yet dominant, Europe is quietly building momentum. In 2023/24, over 13,000 Vietnamese students chose Germany, France, the Netherlands, Italy, and Finland. Germany led with 5,684 enrolments, thanks to affordable tuition, high-quality education, and a well-established Vietnamese diaspora.
In South Asia, Europe is already seeing a surge in demand—agents in India and Bangladesh are overwhelmed and struggling to keep up with the growing interest in European study destinations.
Could Vietnam be next? All signs point to yes.
Why Europe should pay attention
Vietnam is evolving rapidly. Its economy, demographics, and education demands are all shifting in ways that signal rising outbound student mobility.
Digitisation and industrialisation are accelerating the need for a globally competitive, tech-savvy workforce.
Employers are placing greater emphasis on practical skills and employability, driven by labour shortages and industry transformation.
Students are responding by seeking education pathways that offer international exposure, work experience, and strong career outcomes.
At the same time, Vietnam’s macroeconomic momentum is making international studies more accessible than ever.
Middle class growth: Over 50% of households are projected to be middle-income by 2030.
Booming digital economy: Expected to reach $45 billion by 2025, fueling demand for globally trained STEM talent.
FDI surge: $21.5 billion in H1 2025—up 32.6% YoY—focused on high-tech sectors.
Industry alignment: AI, electronics, agritech, and logistics are leading demand for skilled graduates.
Policy support: Reforms like Decree 19/2025 are fast-tracking innovation and foreign investment.
7.52% GDP growth in H1 2025 marks the strongest mid-year performance in over 15 years.
Vietnam Snapshot (H1 2025):
Economic momentum
GDP growth: 7.52% - strongest mid-year performance in 15+ years
FDI inflows: $21.5 billion - up 32.6% YoY, led by high-tech sectors
Digital economy: Projected to hit $45 billion by 2025
Student mobility signals
TNE Growth: Enrolment in Australian TNE programmes up 136% since 2019 (from 7,368 to 17,372)
South Korea: Vietnamese enrolment more than doubled (from 7,817 to 16,884)
US visa decline: F1 visa issuances fell by 13% in April and 17% in May 2025 (y-o-y)
Europe rising: 13,000+ Vietnamese students enrolled across Germany, France, Netherlands, Italy & Finland
Labour market pressures
Demand surging in AI, electronics, agritech, logistics
Skills focus: tech-savvy, globally trained, job-ready graduates
Strategic actions for student recruitment in Vietnam
To capture Vietnam’s growing demand, institutions must meet students’ rising expectations and align more closely with labour market needs:
Design curricula around real-world industry requirements
Build robust internship and job placement partnerships
Provide flexible pathways that integrate TNE and student mobility
Communicate clear post-study work and immigration opportunities
Leverage alumni, families, and communities as trusted voices in the decision-making process
The impact of this shift extends well beyond the classroom, affecting real estate and student housing investors, governments, and education providers.
Lead with insight: Track student visa data trends before they peak
Vietnamese students are highly motivated, increasingly mobile, and more globally aware than ever before. With traditional markets seeing turbulence and Asia absorbing more students, Europe has a clear window of opportunity.
But this won’t happen automatically. It requires:
Proactive international student recruitment
Tailored messaging
Strategic partnerships
A compelling, employment-driven offer
International student mobility is a dynamic game of attraction and attention. If educational institutions only monitor their own performance, they risk falling behind.
Vietnam is a clear example: the students are moving. Their destination choices reflect affordability, policy shifts, job prospects, and global perception.
For European institutions to win, they must track these trends, not just react to them.
A 5-step process to spot & act on emerging opportunities:
Monitor other study destination trends – e.g., student visa policies, work rights, political shifts and economic indicators
Track student visa approval rates – they reveal movement before enrolments do
Review historical enrolments (e.g., Vietnam) and benchmark against destination development trends
Understand what students want – affordability, job prospects, safety, specific program?
Match your offer – and invest strategically if your destination ticks the right boxes
BONARD Education Platform makes this possible, providing early signals that help you adjust strategy, optimise campaigns, and stay one step ahead of your competitors.
Curious where Vietnamese students are going next - and why?
Curious about the latest trends in higher education and student visa application data?
BONARD Education Platform helps institutions track market shifts in real time, so you can align international student recruitment strategies, optimise campaigns, and reach international students before competitors do.
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