Key takeaways from BONARD's Q2 2026 Global Student Flows Briefing
International student mobility is not declining; it is reorganising. The latest student visa, enrolment and source market data points to a more fragmented and controlled phase of global student mobility.
Global student mobility is not shrinking — it is being redistributed
What the latest visa, enrolment and source market data signals for 2026/27 student recruitment
International student demand remains strong. However, the routes students take, the destinations they consider and the criteria influencing their decisions are changing.
During BONARD Education’s Q2 2026 Global Student Flows Briefing, our international education experts examined the latest student visa, enrolment and student mobility data across the Big Four study destinations — Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States — alongside New Zealand, Europe and Asia.
The data points to a more fragmented and controlled phase of international student mobility.
Students are continuing to pursue education abroad, but affordability, visa accessibility, post-study work opportunities, employability and policy stability are playing a greater role in where they ultimately enrol.
For institutions planning for 2026/27, this means that historical source market patterns may no longer provide a sufficient basis for student recruitment decisions.
What the latest data shows
3.6M → 3M
Big Four enrolments forecast to fall from ~3.6M (2024/25) to ~3M by 2026/27
−285k
Student visas across the Big Four + NZ in 2025 — ~988,000 granted, 285k fewer than 2024
+19%
Asia international enrolment growth in 2024/25 — Europe grew ~4%
−9%
Chinese students in the Big Four — but +9% across monitored APAC destinations
Demand ≠ conversion
A source market can show strong demand while still presenting significant conversion risk
The Big Four is moving towards more controlled student mobility
Policy changes introduced across the Big Four in 2024 and 2025 differ in their design, but they share a common direction: governments are seeking greater control over immigration through study routes.
Canada and Australia have introduced caps, allocations and tighter compliance requirements. The United Kingdom has strengthened institutional compliance measures, while the United States has increased visa screening and introduced restrictions affecting applicants from a wide range of nationalities.
These policies do not necessarily indicate weaker demand for international education. Instead, access to the major English-speaking study destinations has become more selective.
The effects are already visible in student enrolment and student visa data.
Combined international enrolments across the Big Four reached approximately 3.6 million in 2024/25. Based on current policy and demand signals, BONARD forecasts that this could decline to around 3 million by 2026/27.
The Big Four will remain central to global student mobility. Their institutions, programme portfolios and graduate opportunities continue to attract students. However, their future growth is likely to be slower, less evenly distributed and more sensitive to government policy.
What the data shows: Overall mobility holds near 6.2 million, but the Big Four decline while Europe, Asia and TNE all grow. Source: BONARD Education Platform, 2026
Visa data points to further pressure in 2026
Approximately 988,000 student visas were granted across the Big Four and New Zealand in 2025 — around 285,000 fewer than in 2024.
However, the early 2026 outlook is more challenging. Recent visa trends reflect the effect of new compliance measures, longer processing times and higher levels of scrutiny for applicants from selected source markets.
🇨🇦 Canada
Canada approved approximately 108,000 new study permits in 2025, following two years of major policy adjustment. However, exemptions for master’s and doctoral students and other more positive policy signals suggest that 2026 could mark the beginning of stabilisation.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
The United Kingdom was the only Big Four destination to record growth during the year, issuing approximately 410,000 student visas, a modest increase of around 3%.
🇦🇺 Australia
Australia issued approximately 197,000 student visas in 2025, representing a 12% annual decline and a second consecutive year of contraction. Tighter evidence requirements and changes to provider and country risk ratings are expected to contribute to another decline in 2026.
🇬🇧 United States
The United States recorded a 30% year-on-year fall in student visa issuance in 2025. A temporary suspension of visa interviews contributed to this decline, but continued uncertainty around screening, safety and destination perception may place further pressure on 2026 intake.
Visa data is becoming an early indicator of future student enrolments
Application numbers alone do not show whether student demand will convert into enrolments.
Visa approval and refusal rates have become increasingly important indicators of student recruitment risk.
In Australia, the average visa grant rate fell to a record low of approximately 76% in the first quarter of 2026, compared with more than 83% across 2025. Declines were particularly pronounced among applicants from Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Kenya.
The UK has also recorded longer processing times and increased refusal activity, particularly among applicants from Pakistan, Nigeria, India and Bangladesh.
Available estimates suggest that the average US student visa approval rate declined from approximately 69% in 2023/24 to 65% in 2025, with particularly high refusal rates affecting parts of Africa and South Asia.
These developments may influence not only final visa outcomes, but also future application behaviour. Students and recruitment partners may begin redirecting demand towards destinations perceived as more accessible or predictable.
What the data shows: Student visa grant rates per quarter in selected study destinations. Australia recorded the lowest grant rate in the period shown, falling to 76%, while the UK remained comparatively high at 87%. New Zealand stayed stable and strong at 88%. Source: BONARD Education Platform, 2026
For institutions, this creates an important distinction: a source market can show strong demand while still presenting significant conversion risk.
Europe and Asia continue to gain ground
As access to the Big Four becomes more controlled, other study destinations are absorbing part of the redistributed demand.
Asia
+19% international enrolments
~650,000 international students across BONARD-monitored study destinations were enrolled in Asia in 2024/25.
Japan and South Korea continue to strengthen their role as regional study destinations, while education hubs such as Malaysia and Hong Kong are gaining momentum. These markets benefit from their proximity to major source markets, relative affordability and improving education quality.
Europe
+4% international enrolments
~2.1 million international students were enrolled in Europe in 2024/25.
However, Europe should not be treated as one uniform study destination.
Countries are following different policy approaches and attracting different source market profiles.
Germany and Ireland, for example, have benefited from redirected demand from India. France, Portugal, Poland and other European markets have their own historical links, language advantages and regional recruitment patterns.
The opportunity therefore lies not simply in “Europe” or “Asia”, but in understanding which destination and source market combinations are becoming more competitive.
China remains essential, but student behaviour is changing
China remains one of the most important source markets in international education, but the market is entering a more mature and selective phase.
~613,000
Chinese students in the Big 4
An estimated 613,000 Chinese students were enrolled across the Big Four in 2025/26, representing a year-on-year decline of around 9%, or approximately 55,000–60,000 students.
~260,000
Chinese students in APAC
Approximately 260,000 Chinese students are now studying across the selected APAC destinations monitored by BONARD, representing annual growth of around 9%.
Japan is projected to host approximately 136,000 Chinese students. Hong Kong has more than doubled its intake compared with 2019/20, while Malaysia has grown from just over 12,000 Chinese students to almost 32,000.
What the data shows: Chinese enrolments in every Big Four destination are below 2019/20 levels, with the sharpest falls in the US and Canada. Source: BONARD Education Platform, 2026
Several factors are driving this change:
economic pressure on Chinese families;
increasing tuition and living costs in Western destinations;
greater emphasis on return on investment;
proximity to home;
improving education quality within Asia;
wider destination and programme choice.
Chinese students are no longer choosing overseas education primarily on the basis of prestige. They are increasingly evaluating practical skills, career outcomes, affordability and long-term value.
For institutions, China should therefore not be viewed as a declining volume market alone. It remains a high-value and highly strategic source market — but one that requires a more sophisticated and targeted recruitment approach.
What this means for international student recruitment teams in 2026/2027
The outlook for 2026/27 is increasingly fragmented.
International student demand is not disappearing. It is being redistributed across study destinations, institutions, programme types and delivery models.
Recruitment leaders should therefore focus on five areas:
1. Use visa data as an early indicator | Visa applications and approval rates can reveal changes in student demand before final enrolment data becomes available. |
2. Separate demand from conversion | High interest does not automatically translate into enrolments. Visa accessibility, affordability and admissions requirements all influence conversion. |
3. Reduce overreliance on a small number of source markets | China and India will remain essential, but institutions need a broader and more balanced source market portfolio. |
4. Identify resilient and realistic opportunities | Not every growing source market will be suitable for every institution. Programme fit, price point, destination perception and institutional recognition all matter. |
5. Monitor destination competitiveness | Government policy, work rights, graduate outcomes and affordability are now part of the recruitment proposition. |
Looking ahead
The next phase of international student mobility will be shaped by institutions and destinations that can interpret early signals and adapt accordingly.
The future of international education will not be defined only by where students have traditionally gone, but by where it makes sense for them to study, build skills and plan their futures under changing policy, affordability and employability conditions.
At BONARD Education, we continue to track these shifts across source markets and study destinations — helping institutions move from reaction to strategy.
Explore the full Q2 2026 Global Student Flows Briefing presentation and webinar recording via the form below to access the latest data and destination-level analysis.
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