What do international education agents think about Canada’s newly introduced cap on new student permits?

Canada’s recently announced cap on new student visas is not expected to significantly change the country’s reputation as a welcoming study destination, education agents told BONARD.

Education agents working with the Canadian market were surveyed by BONARD international education specialists in February 2024. They told us that the government’s decision to introduce a two-year cap on the number of new study permits could have a number of positive outcomes.

Agents' views on Canada's new student permit cap

The cap on new student visas, announced in January, will come into effect from September 2024. It is estimated that 360,000 new study permits will be approved in 2024, a decrease of 35% compared to 2023.¹ Elementary and secondary students, as well as those pursuing a master’s or a doctoral degree, will not be affected. However, the language sector will be affected, as a proportion of students enrol in language courses on a study permit.

The cap is part of a series of measures announced by the Canadian government in recent months to tighten student visa rules.

Positive outcomes anticipated by agents

While praising the efforts made by the government to support sustainable growth and protect the sector’s integrity, stakeholders in the international education industry worry that the new regulations will tarnish Canada’s reputation as a welcoming country and unfairly damage parts of the sector.²

However, the education agents surveyed by BONARD were able to articulate a number of positive effects they expect the new regulations to have.

"The education agents surveyed by BONARD were able to articulate a number of positive effects they expect the new regulations will have."

Sarah Verkinova Senior Research Manager

Most importantly, agents believe that genuine students will continue to choose Canada as their preferred destination and that the new measures will protect and strengthen the reputation of Canadian institutions for quality education.

Another notable positive outcome concerns the student experience: agencies believe that sustainable growth in the number of international students coming to Canada will enhance the student experience and ensure that all students have access to the services and support they need.

Potential shifts in student demand

In terms of the shifts in demand that the new regulations could create, agents mentioned two possible trends.

First of all, Canada could see demand rise from younger students, as they are not included in the cap. Demand for high school programs is already growing fast in Brazil, and this development could further boost the sector.

Agents also commented that the composition of the student population could change slightly, with a larger influx of affluent students who can afford the minimum fund required to obtain a student visa, now set at CAN$20,635.

Considering the impact of the new regulations on their own business, agents were understandably concerned about visa rejection rates. However, they were still optimistic about the future: with access to clear and timely information from Canadian institutions, overseas education agencies will be able to support sustainable flows of students into Canada.

Agents were divided on whether students will be less interested in studying English in Canada. According to 49% of respondents, demand will decrease, whereas 35% think it will stay the same, and 11% believe demand will actually increase.

Anticipated changes in destination preferences

The majority of agents think there may be a shift in destination preferences among students. Asked what percentage of students may change destination in response to policy changes, the most significant proportion of respondents (28%) think this will happen in 21% to 30% of cases. Two in five respondents believe between 31% and 40% of students will change their preference, while a further two in five opted for the 41% – 50% bracket.

The destination that stands to gain most from Canada’s new restrictions is Australia, followed by the UK, the US, Ireland, and New Zealand.

About the survey

The survey gathered responses from 90 agents in 22 countries: Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Ecuador, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Nepal, Pakistan, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.

Agents from LATAM, a key source region for the Canadian international education sector, made up a sizeable proportion of the sample.

Supported by an in-depth analysis of data from 2022 and 2023, we presented this industry's sentiment towards Canada's ELT at the recent Languages Canada Annual Conference 2024. Read more about our presentation here >>

BONARD’s international education specialists will keep monitoring the market to provide our clients and partners with actionable insights to inform marketing and strategic planning. To learn more about BONARD’s Agency Survey, please contact education@bonard.com.